Analyzing Jimmy Butler's spectacular second half of the year
Jimmy always separates his season into two parts, and the second half of this season has been nothing short of amazing
Jimmy Butler wasn’t an All-Star. And honestly, he was probably the only NBA player happy about that. Well, actually we know he was:
Butler, by all accounts, can’t stand the All-Star weekend and prefers the vacation, and if the mid-season vacation is what makes him ball out like this - then we prefer it too. Because honestly, even before Jimmy Butler turned into a playoff demon and went Buck hunting on Monday night he was putting together something spectacular.
Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde
Jimmy Butler’s performance before the All-Star break was excellent. And that’s the frustrating thing because I can’t say he was playing poorly before February 17th. Prior to All-Star, Butler was averaging 21.7 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 5.1 assists on 50% shooting - those are elite numbers in the NBA.
It’s just that as of February 24th, Butler entered another dimension - averaging 25.6 points, 5.9 assists, and 5.6 rebounds while shooting 61.6% from the field. Suddenly Jimmy started having games where he’d absolutely explode, and deliver in the clutch. These “highlight” games became more frequent as the postseason came into view.
3/3/2023 - 33 points vs New York
3/10/2023 - 33 points vs Cleveland
3/11/2023 - 38 points vs Orlando
3/22/2023 - 35 points vs New York
4/1/2023 - 35 points vs Dallas
In the twenty games Butler played from February 24th to April 3rd, he only scored less than 23 points four times. In the games where he eclipsed 30 points, he also peppered in an average of 5 boards and 6.2 assists while shooting an average of 62.12% from the field. And those four games where he scored less than 20? Well, they weren’t all bad. Butler’s shot attempts were way down, but he still shot 58% from the field and averaged 5 assists - though it’s telling that the Heat lost all but one of those games.
He might not like it, but the Heat needs Jimmy Buckets to win games, a fact that’s being proven in the playoffs.
In the battle of attrition that makes up an NBA season, most players start to falter down the stretch. But not Butler, he gets better and he keeps carrying it over into the playoffs.
Jimmy has turned his late-season surge into playoff super-heroics. After a shaky Play-In loss against the Atlanta Hawks and a bounce-back 31-point outing vs the Chicago Bulls, Jimmy has averaged 37.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 4.8 assists in the first round. He’s done all of this shooting 59.7% from the field, and 44% from three-point range while being guarded by one of the NBA’s best in Jrue Holiday.
Is this sustainable? Time will tell. According to Cleaning the Glass, Butler ranks in the 100th percentile when it comes to playoff usage right now at 32.7% and 88th in assist percentage at 24.5%. This level of usage is not dissimilar from Dwyane Wade’s 33.3% usage and 36.3% assist percentage during the 2006 postseason run. In fact, Butler’s stats aren’t dissimilar from Wade’s 2006 postseason average of 28.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 5.7 assists.
Except Jimmy is 33 and Wade was 23. The main difference of course is ultimately the hardware. Wade’s postseason was legendary, Butler is still writing his legend - one thing is for certain though, this Heat team will only go as far as Jimmy will take them, and right now he’s taken them through the NBA’s best team and into the second round. The sky is the limit.
I guess everyone has seen Jovic’s look. That’s me! That’s most of us Heat fans! Bummer I wasn’t able to watch game 5 (I know what a letdown as a diehard Heat fan) and was just glancing at the play-by-play in my phone as my wife kept glancing at me also. Well, more like staring intensely lol. And finally when I got the time to watch the recap…Jovic’s face all over again! I watched 4 videos of the game and maybe a couple more of Jimmy’s shot that got it to OT. After a game 4 masterpiece by the master himself, Mr. Butler, coming back from being down 14, did we really thought they could do it again? I said to myself am I really betting against this dude who just dropped 56 two days ago?! But this is enemy ground and the opponent is desperate. Very desperate. Well, the hell with those “complications” and LETS GO HEAT! That was entering the final quarter which would eventually turn out its the Bucks last of the season. So here we are enjoying the Heat’s first round victory in unbelievable fashion. Again, thank you Mr. Butler sir! Hoping we get pass the next rd with JB's growing legend and of course more help from the rest of the crew. Go Heat!
Here's my thinking:
#1) you want your role guys and rotation players to know what they're doing. If Jimmy is ball-dominant the whole season, then nobody else is getting in their reps and when post-season time comes I don't think you get plays like Gabe Vincent's 3 to bring the score to 116-117. I think for the first half of the season, Jimmy is deliberately in "teacher" mode, or something similar, to make sure the rest of the team is clicking. Then once they are, he can start taking over with the confidence that when the other guys *need* to step up, they're capable of it.
#2) If the other team has to prep for you, and all of their tape says that Jimmy's going to score around 20 a game, then it's harder to game-plan for what to do when Jimmy starts scoring 40 and 50. It's almost a metaphor for surrounding him and Bam with shooters: even if the ball is going to Jimmy every play, the opposing defense still has to pay respect to the shooters outside the arc or else you leave one of them open and Jimmy fires off a pass. Opposing team's gotta prep for a situation where Max or Kyle or Caleb or Duncan or whoever goes off, because each of them has demonstrated that they *can* be dangerous. This misdirect enables Jimmy's dominance by taking the focus off of him.
Or all that might just be me philosophizing over nothing. Who knows.