The 2023 Miami Heat offseason has arrived -- now what?

Let's scratch the surface on the impending offseason.

Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images

The Miami Heat’s improbable, historic NBA Finals run and the 2022-23 NBA season is now officially over with their Game 5 loss to the Denver Nuggets.

Now that the offseason has begrudgingly arrived, let’s briefly dive into the 2023 offseason, because man, there are plenty of questions that need to be answered—here are 10 below, however!

1. Which Heat players are still under contract?

As of right now, for the 2023-24 season, the Miami Heat will have eight players with guaranteed contracts and one player on a non-guaranteed deal — Haywood Highsmith, for roughly $1.9 million.

Highsmith did nothing but good things in the limited sample he was on the floor this postseason; the team has until July 15 to guarantee his contract, which I foresee them exercising.

The 2023-24 season will be the first year of Jimmy Butler’s three-year, $146.3 million extension that he signed prior to 2021-22, as well as the first of Tyler Herro’s four-year $120 million extension he signed in October last offseason.

Victor Oladipo, who underwent knee surgery after tearing his patellar tendon in Game 3 of their first-round series against Milwaukee, has a player option attached to his two-year, $18.2 million deal he signed last offseason.

Here are the players on contract, with their 2023-24 cap figures:

• Jimmy Butler — $45.2M

• Bam Adebayo — $32.6M

• Kyle Lowry — $29.7M

• Tyler Herro — $27.0M

• Duncan Robinson — $18.2M

• Victor Oladipo — $9.5M (player option; he has until June 29 to pick up/decline option)

• Caleb Martin — $6.8M

• Nikola Jovic — $2.4M

• Haywood Highsmith — $1.9M

This doesn’t include the No. 18 overall pick. The official numbers for the 2023-24 rookie scale numbers have not been released yet, but for perspective, the first-year rookie scale contract of the No. 18 pick in 22-23 was $3.2M (Dalen Terry — Chicago Bulls).

The Heat are required to have 14 players under contract at the start of the season.

2. So, who are their free agents then?

In lieu of Udonis Haslem’s retirement, and assuming Victor Oladipo exercises his option, the Heat will have four unrestricted free agents—Kevin Love, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and Cody Zeller—and three restricted free agents in Omer Yurtseven, Orlando Robinson and Jamal Cain, with the latter two being two-ways.

The Heat do not own the bird rights for either Love or Zeller, but do for Strus and Vincent.

3. How much can each free agent make (without using exceptions)?

Let’s begin with Robinson and Cain, shall we?

Miami can elect to bring either/both back for just a one-year minimum, or the Heat can copy what they did with Strus and Vincent after their respective two-ways expired: Signing them to multi-year minimum deals.

Assuming the salary cap remains at $134 million and assuming the Heat don’t tap into their mid-level exception to sign any of their restricted free agents (why would they, in principle?), both Cain and Robinson can sign one- or multi-year minimums beginning at about $1.8 million for the 2023-24 season.

Yurtseven can do the same, though his starting salary would begin at about $2 million instead of the aforementioned $1.8 million because of his added years of experience.

In the off-chance that any of the other teams throw an offer sheet at Miami’s restricted free agents, the Heat could hypothetically match those offer sheets. Though going the minimum route is the most likely route to keep all three, if it chooses to.

For its unrestricted free agents, it’s a different ballgame.

The Heat own both Strus and Vincent’s bird rights, so they could theoretically sign them to any amount without cap space. They’re obviously not going to willingly give either whatever they want, but they’re eligible to, per say.

Retaining Vincent likely will and should be Miami’s biggest priority from their free agent class.

With Love and Zeller, it’s a tad more complicated. The Heat don’t own Love’s bird rights, so by rule, they can only sign for 120 percent of his previous season’s salary—Love signed Miami’s $3.1M prorated bi-annual in February. Since a four-year deal would hypothetically trigger the over-38 rule, Love can only sign for a max of three years, beginning at $3.74 million (a three-year deal would equate to approximately $11.8M).

Zeller’s also without bird rights. He signed a prorated minimum of $744K, so he can sign for 120 percent of the minimum salary without using cap space.

4. Will every free agent be brought back?

Rarely ever does every free agent return to the same team; they’re eligible to, but Pat Riley, Andy Elisburg and the Heat brass have some important (financial and personnel) decisions to make—especially with Strus and Vincent, who are going to command the most money among the bunch.

5. Which players under contract are in danger of getting moved?

The new CBA complicates things; once again, nine players are under contract and, assuming everything is guaranteed and exercised, Miami currently has $173.1 million (not counting their FRP) in active cap—$11.1 million above the projected $162 luxury tax and $4.1 million above the projected $169M tax apron, should it trigger it.

We can already eliminate Bam Adebayo or Jimmy Butler from getting moved. They’re not getting traded. If you’re planning your hypothetical offseason plans around either one of them getting traded, you’re wasting your time and you’re wasting everyone else’s time around you, for those that have to hear/see it.

Herro is Miami’s most valuable non-Adebayo/Butler trade chip. Kyle Lowry’s contract is expiring, so that inherently becomes more valuable compared to if it wasn’t. Duncan Robinson is on the books for three more years and Caleb Martin for two more; it can also use Oladipo’s $9.5 million as a salary filler, even though that’s not as likely because of his injury.

The Heat can also move second-year forward Nikola Jovic or Highsmith (if his contract becomes guaranteed) as trade chips.

No, none of this really answers the question, but after what we saw through 100-plus games, anyone but Adebayo or Butler is truly on the table if Riley really wants to overhaul this roster. My guess is at least 1-2 of Lowry/Robinson/Herro is moved, but it’s too hard to tell right now because it depends on who they choose to re-sign and if/who they decide to select in the draft.

6. What exceptions do the Heat have available to add new players?

The Heat is operating over the cap. Since they used their bi-annual to sign Love, the BAE will not be available to them until 2024-25.

Thus, they will have the projected $5M taxpayer mid-level at their disposal, as well as a $4.7M trade exception granted by Dewayne Dedmon’s deadline trade to San Antonio.

Unless they shift additional money around, the Heat cannot use more than their taxpayer’s portion of their mid-level exception (full MLE projects to be $12.2M) to add new blood because that triggers the hard-cap; if a team is hard-capped, then they cannot exceed the projected $169 million tax apron under any circumstance.

The hard-capped is also triggered by sign-and-trading for a player, as well as using the BAE (which they don’t have, as previously mentioned).

Miami’s currently about $6.4 million below the projected $179.5M second tax apron.

7. Second tax apron? Huh? What’s that?

The newly-signed CBA introduced a second tax apron about $17.5 million above the luxury tax line, which plans to be implemented this upcoming offseason.

The second apron is projected to be $179.5 million; teams who surpass that apron will be subject to plenty of roster-building limitations, a few being:

• Teams over the second apron cannot use taxpayer MLE to sign one or multiple free agents.

• Teams cannot send out cash in trades.

• Teams cannot trade first-round picks seven years away (if a team is above the second apron for two years in a four-year span, that seventh-year pick automatically moves to the end of the first round.)

• Teams cannot sign free agents via the buyout market.

• Teams are limited to taking 110 percent of outgoing salary in trades instead of 125 percent (only for 2023-24 season; teams above second apron can’t take back more money beginning in 2024-25.)

Thus, the best way to roster build for those that exceed the second apron is for a team to re-sign their own players plus add players only on minimum contracts that offseason; it could also swing a trade or two, but that’ll deepen a team’s luxury tax bill since they’re limited with how much salary they can send out.

In any scenario, building a roster if you’re over the second apron is going to be incredibly difficult, which is why most won’t go over it.

The Heat are still in the safe zone, folks, but they’re not far from it, which makes this offseason extra juicy. The Heat would currently have a current tax bill of $19.1 million (non-repeaters) and, because of these limitations that were designed to dissolve the top, we could be looking at a completely different team around Butler and Adebayo next season depending on how the front office wants to shift/work around this.

8. Are the Heat going to use their 2023 first-round pick?

Oh yeah … the 2023 NBA Draft begins in nine days!

The Heat have not been afraid to trade their first-round selections in the past.

Nikola Jovic was the Heat’s fifth first-round pick since 2014 and the third since 2018. They are in a good position to get talent at No. 18 overall, should they keep the pick.

Though if the right player comes available on the trade market, don’t be surprised if they flip this pick plus other assets. The Heat are eligible to outright trade their 2023, 2028, 2029 and 2030 first-round picks (in some capacity, not all at the same because of the Stepien rule).

We’ve also seen them find dudes outside of the draft if they trade the pick. Did you know the Miami Heat rostered nine undrafted players in 2022-23? Feels like a very under-talked-about storyline that nobody ever references when this organization’s brought up. Like, not even a little bit.

9. Who would they trade those first-round picks for?

A really good player—perhaps if a (super)star becomes available. We know how often Riley goes whale hunting.

10. Paging Damian Lillard … Do the Heat need a No. 1 scorer?

Did Damian Lillard recently say, among a list of four teams, he wouldn’t mind getting traded to the Heat because of Bam Adebayo? Yes, yes he did.

Does that mean the Heat have a realistic shot at acquiring the soon-to-be 33-year-old superstar guard if he doesn’t specifically requests to get traded to Miami and only Miami? Not at all.

I shall add if we’re going to do the Damian Lillard-Heat dream again (how many consecutive offseasons is this? Three? Four? Five?), I shall continually add that he has not made any indication that he wants to be traded.

Here’s what he told Showtime in the same interview.

“(Portland) could trade me to somewhere that we all say, you know, ‘This is a contender,’” Lillard said on The Last Stand. “But what is it going to cost for me to get there? What is it going to cost that team that we’re saying is a contender for me to get there? And how is it a guarantee that we’re gonna be playing in June when I get there? How do we know if everybody’s gonna be healthy? How do we know if it’s gonna work out?

“I think I’ve made it clear what my wishes are—I want to have an opportunity to win in Portland. And right now, we got an opportunity—asset-wise—to build a team that can compete. That would be the number one thing, but if we can’t do that, then, obviously like I’ve said, it’s a separate conversation we would have to have. You’ve got to let things take its course and see where it lands and go from there.

“There’s no guarantee that I’d be playing in June regardless of the situation. Of course I’d love to not have not been in the playoffs the last two seasons even though I was in the prior eight (seasons) before that. Being in it every year is different than not being there … People make fun of it, like, ‘Run from the grind!’ … But I’m not a fool. I’m not crazy. I love the organization I play for, I love the city I live in and I’m going to give them every opportunity to give me or give us what we need to have a true chance to compete for that.”

The Heat would also be in a precarious position because of the luxury tax and second apron; Lillard has three years and $153 million guaranteed left on his contract tagged with an additional $63.2 million player option in 2026-27, his age-36 season. Bam Adebayo might be eligible for the supermax (north of $240 million) next offseason while Butler still has nearly $150 million on the books for the next three years.

If a front office can somehow 1.) Acquire Lillard without including Butler or Adebayo (which feels wildly unrealistic) and 2.) Field a competitive roster outside of the star duo, without entering the second apron, it’s Pat Riley Andy Elisburg—but it’s not going to be easy if Lillard is the whale Riley seeks.

As to the second part of that question, Butler’s shown he’s capable of leading a team as the No. 1 scorer, but it can’t just be him. This postseason, everyone outside of Butler played an integral part in their historic run.

Butler was limited with a bum ankle suffered in Game 1 against New York, significantly limiting his burst and explosiveness—which was evident against Boston and Denver. But if Miami can somehow grab a No. 1 scorer and push Butler and Adebayo down the totem pole with a good enough supporting cast, nobody should be opposed to the idea.

The NBA playoffs are as much of a “survival of the fittest” tournament as a pure basketball tournament. Butler wasn’t healthy; if he was, does that mean Miami wins the Finals? Not necessarily, because Denver deserves all the credit in the world for how defended played Butler. So does Boston, and frankly, so does New York, even if you’re still mad at Josh Hart.

A No. 1 scorer doesn’t guarantee anything, nor does a healthy Butler, nor does a healthy anyone. The second apron makes it that much more difficult to team-build, making the obstacle of acquiring a No. 1 scorer even harder—even though I still reserve hope that Butler is still that guy, should he have a good enough supporting cast around him.

We’ll be getting into roster predictions at a later date, but here’s your lengthy summary on a Miami Heat offseason preview … scratching the surface.

Predicting what this franchise do is fool’s errand; anything can happen and you don’t really know until you actually know. It should be a fun one ahead.

But darn it only if they could’ve forced a Game 6!!! Urgh….!